Web 2003: A Five-Year
Perspective on the Future of the Web
Dr. Jakob Nielsen, Nielsen Norman Group, USA
(formerly with Sun Microsystems)
Monday, Nov. 9th, 8:30-9:30 AM
It is now five years since the introduction of Mosaic in 1993 and the ensuing explosion in the number of websites. Looking back over these five years, there have been many improvements on the Web, but they have mostly been cosmetic, leading to a system that is clearly inadequate to support users' needs. During the next five years, many of these fundamental limitations will be addressed, leading to a Web2003 that is:
(*) a hundred times bigger than the Web now
(*) ten thousand times as important, launching the network economy
(*) based on micro-payments, allowing users to take control
(*) described by meta-content, rich attributes, and pseudo-intelligent information
structures
(*) much easier to navigate
(*) accessed from a multiplicity of devices, including wireless connectivity
(*) fully integrated into a content-oriented user interface that replaces current
feature-based computers
(*) as pleasant as paper for users with high-end monitors and bandwidth
Mainstream availability of high-quality hardware may take ten years, but by
2008 it should be as pleasant to read the Web as it is to read a printed
newspaper. A few years later, print will die.
Jakob Nielsen, Ph.D., is a Sun Microsystems Distinguished Engineer and has been the company's Web usability guru since the original design of SunWeb in 1994. Nielsen is the author of the best-selling books "Multimedia and Hypertext: The Internet and Beyond" and "Usability Engineering" as well as a new book on Web design, "Designing Excellent Websites: Secrets of an Information Architect" (www.excellentsites.com), to be published spring 1998. He also writes the bi-weekly Alertbox column about Web usability at http://www.useit.com/alertbox